Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
